不同计算形式的相关分析在气象中的应用综述     

朱玉祥  江剑民  赵亮  刘海文  侯美亭  李宏毅  万文龙  赵翠光 《热带气象学报》2021,37(1):1-13

相关分析在气象科研和业务中具有广泛应用,是定量分析气象变量之间关系的重要工具。首先系统综述了气象科研与业务中不同计算形式的相关分析算法,然后重点阐述了相关分析在气象领域应用的最新进展,特别是全窗口滑动相关和相关系数的扫描式多尺度突变检测算法。接着介绍了大数据研究领域中新发展的相关分析算法,简析了其对气象相关分析的启示。最后分析了气象相关分析中存在的问题,并且对相关分析在气象领域未来的发展趋势进行了展望。   相似文献   

The Key Supply Source of Long-Distance Moisture Transport for the Extreme Rainfall Event on July 21, 2012 in Beijing     

李娟  徐祥德  李跃清  赵天良  吴翀 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(1):34-47

In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and meteorological observation data were used to research the long-distance moisture transport supply source of the extreme rainfall event that occurred on July 21, 2012 in Beijing. Recording a maximum rainfall amount of 460 mm in 24 h, this rainstorm event had two dominant moisture transport channels. In the early stage of the rainstorm, the first channel comprised southwesterly monsoonal moisture from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) that was directly transported to north China along the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau (TP) by orographic uplift. During the rainstorm, the southwesterly moisture transport was weakened by the transfer of Typhoon Vicente. Moreover, the southeasterly moisture transport between the typhoon and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) became another dominant moisture transport channel. The moisture in the lower troposphere was mainly associated with the southeasterly moisture transport from the South China Sea and the East China Sea, and the moisture in the middle troposphere was mainly transported from the BOB and Indian Ocean. The control experiment well reproduced the distribution and intensity of rainfall and moisture transport. By comparing the control and three sensitivity experiments, we found that the moisture transported from Typhoon Vicente and a tropical cyclone in the BOB both significantly affected this extreme rainfall event. After Typhoon Vicente was removed in a sensitivity experiment, the maximum 24-h accumulated rainfall in north China was reduced by approximately 50% compared with that of the control experiment, while the rainfall after removing the tropical cyclone was reduced by 30%. When both the typhoon and tropical cyclone were removed, the southwesterly moisture transport was enhanced. Moreover, the sensitivity experiment of removing Typhoon Vicente also weakened the tropical cyclone in the BOB. Thus, the moisture pump driven by Typhoon Vicente played an important role in maintaining and strengthening the tropical cyclone in the BOB through its westerly airflow. Typhoon Vicente was not only the moisture transfer source for the southwesterly monsoonal moisture but also affected the tropical cyclone in the BOB, which was a key supply source of long-distance moisture transport for the extreme rainfall event on July 21, 2012 in Beijing.  相似文献   

A CRPS-Based Spatial Technique for the Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts     

赵滨  张博  李子良 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(1):24-33

Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known“double penalty”problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations. The fuzzy (neighborhood) method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem. The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts. We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score, i.e., the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score (SCRPS), and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts. The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the fuzzy method. A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency, which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS. The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained. The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used.  相似文献   

华南飑线系统对流与层云区闪电起始和通道位置处的云微物理特征     

赵川鸿  郑栋  张义军  刘显通  张阳  姚雯  张文娟 《热带气象学报》2021,37(3):358-369

利用广州S波段双偏振雷达观测数据和低频电场探测阵列三维闪电定位数据, 分析了2017年5月4日和5月8日华南地区两次飑线过程中闪电起始和通道位置处的雷达偏振参量和降水粒子特征。两次飑线中约80%的闪电起始和通道(统称闪电放电)定位于对流区。对流区闪电放电位置处的雷达反射率(Z_H)要比层云区平均大4~5 dBZ, 其它偏振参量的平均值较为接近。闪电放电位置处的Z_H中值随高度增加而减小, 但差分反射率(Z_DR)、差分传播相移率(K_DP)和共极化相关系数(CC)在-10 ℃层以上随高度变化不大; -10 ℃层以下, 对流区闪电放电位置对应Z_DR和K_DP随高度下降明显增大。闪电起始位置的平均Z_H比闪电通道位置处的平均Z_H大1~2 dBZ, 但前者在对流区内对应Z_H分布峰值区间为25~30 dBZ, 弱于后者的30~35 dBZ; 同时, 它们的对比关系在-20 ℃层上下不同。对流区内闪电放电位置处的主导性粒子是霰和冰晶, 它们的区域占比接近。在层云区内, 闪电放电位置主要是干雪和冰晶, 干雪区域的占比显著大于冰晶。   相似文献   

不同台风降水强度下风廓线雷达适用性     

郭运  汤胜茗  王旭  汤杰  赵兵科  张帅 《热带气象学报》2021,37(2):268-276

以2019年8月在浙江舟山对1909号超强台风“利奇马”的移动观测试验为基础,利用同一地点释放的9次GPS探空气球,对比了风廓线雷达和多普勒激光测风雷达与GPS探空的吻合程度,并利用车载雨滴谱仪对风廓线雷达在不同台风降水强度下的适用性进行了研究。结果表明,在100~300 m高度范围内激光测风雷达观测风速比风廓线雷达更准确。由水平风速对比结果可知,风廓线雷达在3~4 km高度范围内偏差最小(3.59 m/s),相关性最高(0.86),而在1 km高度下偏差最大(6.39 m/s),相关性最低(0.54);在中雨及大雨条件下适用性最差,最大风速偏差约为18 m/s。由水平风向对比结果可知,风廓线雷达与GPS探空总体上吻合较好,相关系数均大于0.85,均方根偏差均小于11 °。另外,降水强度对风廓线雷达的风向观测影响较小,风向偏差随降水强度的变化总体趋于平稳,基本分布在-20 °~20 °之间。   相似文献   

我国台风高发期东海和南海海区GIIRS/FY-4A温度反演廓线精度研究     

黄艺伟  陈淑仪  何敏  张蕾  赵兵科  刘琼  陈勇航  邬贤文 《热带气象学报》2021,37(2):277-288

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析资料ERA5,对GIIRS/FY-4A温度反演廓线在我国台风高发期东海和南海海区的反演精度进行研究,结果表明:（1）东海海区,无云时GIIRS质量控制0的数据总体RMSE为1.71 K,150~450 hPa高度范围内RMSE小于1 K,450 hPa至近海面RMSE在2 K以内。质量控制1的数据反演精度低且随高度的增加误差增大;有云时,质量控制0和1的反演数据总体RMSE为4.72 K和5.55 K。（2）南海海区,无云时,质量控制0的数据总体RMSE为1.67 K,150~800 hPa范围内RMSE小于1 K,反演精度较东海海区略高。质量控制1的数据RMSE为5.07 K。有云时,质量控制0和1的数据RMSE为6.68 K和7.56 K。（3）随着台风“利奇马”等级加强直至最大等级（海上发展阶段）,GIIRS可信度较高的反演数据量呈现下降趋势,反演台风周边热力结构存在诸多不确定性,需要借助其他资料进行验证。   相似文献   

夏季青藏高原和热带印度洋热力异常对塔里木盆地夏季降水的影响     

王天竺  赵勇 《气候与环境研究》2021,26(3):275-288

基于1979～2017年欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）全球大气数值预报再分析资料ERA-Interim提供的地表潜热及大气环流再分析资料和英国Hadley气候预测和研究中心提供的全球逐月海表温度格点资料以及新疆气象信息中心提供的塔里木盆地26个站逐月降水资料,研究了夏季青藏高原和热带印度洋热力异常对塔里木盆地夏季降水的影响。结果表明:高原北部潜热偏强（弱）和热带印度洋海温偏暖（冷）时,200 hPa纬向风表现为“北负（正）南正（负）”的特征,中亚和贝加尔湖上空分别为异常气旋（反气旋）和异常反气旋（气旋）,在二者共同作用下,塔里木盆地上空盛行偏南（北）风,印度半岛上空为异常反气旋（气旋）,有利（不利）于将低纬度水汽向北输送,配合中亚上空的异常气旋（反气旋）,有利（不利）于水汽进入新疆地区,对应塔里木盆地夏季降水偏多（少）。同时发现塔里木盆地夏季降水与中亚对流层中高层的温度异常（MUTTI）表现为显著的负相关关系,同时MUTTI与高原潜热和印度洋海温的负相关关系显著,夏季高原潜热偏强（弱）时,高原季风偏强（弱）,印度洋海温偏暖（冷）,南亚季风偏弱（强）,在二者共同作用下中亚对流层关键区中高层温度偏低（高）,其通过影响200 hPa纬向风、500 hPa环流和整层水汽输送进一步影响塔里木盆地夏季降水。  相似文献   

秦皇岛外海低氧区颗粒物吸收光谱特征     

于廉涛  张桂成  杨伟  赵亮  李梦婷  宋贵生 《海洋与湖沼》2024,55(1):107-117

近年来, 渤海夏季低氧现象频发, 引起了人们的广泛关注。然而对该海域低氧形成的机制还未得到充分认识。研究基于在秦皇岛外海的现场观测, 分析了海水中颗粒物吸收光谱特征及其与不同粒径浮游植物叶绿素a (chl a)组成、环境因子的关系, 评估了夏季底层水体脱氧过程中有机物来源与特征。结果显示,夏季秦皇岛外海微型浮游植物chl a占总量的80%。表层水体中, 总颗粒物吸收光谱[a_p(l)]特征由浮游植物色素吸收光谱[a_ph(l)]主导, 在中、底层水体中则由碎屑颗粒物吸收光谱[a_d(l)]主导。垂向上, a_p(440)和a_d(440)均表现为表层<中层<底层。结果还表明, 浮游植物粒径主导秦皇岛外海chl a的光吸收效率, 即a^*_ph(440)。基于三粒级chl a含量, 可利用多元回归预测a_ph(440)。碎屑颗粒物的吸收光谱同样受浮游植物群落、有机质相对含量等的影响。研究结果表明初级生产产生的微型颗粒有机物是底层水体脱氧的主要底物。  相似文献   

红鳍东方鲀(Takifugu rubripes)耐低温性状和生长性状遗传参数评估     

赵海池  刘志峰  王新安  包玉龙  刘圣聪  杨明超  闫鹏飞  马爱军 《海洋与湖沼》2024,55(2):517-525

采用人工控温的方式, 对构建的31个F₁红鳍东方鲀(Takifugu rubripes)全同胞家系开展低温胁迫实验, 获得耐低温性状低温累计存活时间(CDH), 基于混合线性模型分别开展耐低温性状和生长性状遗传参数评估,对每一性状是否需要考虑共同环境效应所构建的两种模型进行似然比检验。结果显示, 经似然比检验, 最终选用模型A和模型BF进行耐低温和生长性状遗传评估; 耐低温性状CDH遗传力为(0.27±0.08),属于中等遗传力; 体重BW遗传力为(0.36±0.13), 属于中等遗传力, 体长BL遗传力为(0.14±0.06), 属于低等遗传力, 经检验, 遗传力估计值均达到极显著水平(P<0.01)。CDH和体重、体长的遗传相关分别为(-0.40±0.22)和(-0.44±0.24), 表型相关分别为(-0.09±0.06)和(-0.16± 0.05), 均为负相关; 体重和体长之间的遗传相关为(0.92±0.05), 表型相关为(0.80±0.02), 呈正相关且结果极显著(P<0.01)。研究结果表明, 红鳍东方鲀的耐低温性状和生长性状都具有较好的改良潜力, 考虑到两性状间存在负遗传相关, 在开展耐低温选育时, 对首先不同性状进行品系选育, 然后利用品系间杂交培育出耐高温、生长快的新品种。该项研究首次完成了红鳍东方鲀耐低温性状的遗传参数评估, 为制订红鳍东方鲀耐低温选育育种规划提供了理论依据。  相似文献   

激光跟踪仪测量精度的评定   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

于成浩  柯明  赵振堂 《测绘工程》2006,15(6):39-42

介绍了影响激光跟踪仪测量精度的各种因素及对其测量精度进行评定的意义、指标及方法,阐述了比较法在仪器现场检查和校准中的应用,并以100MeV直线加速器的测量控制网为例,说明统计分析法在验后精度评定中应用。  相似文献